Comments 6

中国会重蹈日本的覆辙吗？

Jun 27, 2016 Stephen S. Roach

发自纽黑文——尽管外界对中国经济的忧虑日益加深，该国却并不会滑向“失落的十年”那样的日本式停滞。不过令人担忧的不确定性依然笼罩着这一判断。日本的命运源自于它不愿放弃一个已经无法正常运行的增长模式。虽然中国采纳结构性再平衡改革的举措将自身与日本区分了开来，但它必须奋力实施这一战略。要么改革成功，要么落得和日本一样的结局。

同样的结论也出现在我于耶鲁大学教授了六年的《日本的教训》课程上。该课程基本上属于一门法证宏观经济学（forensic macroeconomics）课程——从现代日本经济的兴衰中提炼一些核心经验教训，然后找出那些教训与其他主要经济体的相关性。

在课程结束时学生都要提交研究论文去评估哪些候选国可能成为下一个日本。2012年是美国是首选，因为它正努力在2008年金融大危机的余震中站稳脚跟；到2013年则不出意外地转移到遭危机重创的欧洲；而今年却有一半以上的学生（23人中的13位）在研讨会选择研究中国是否会成为下一个日本。

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Tibor Nagy Jul 12, 2016

the soft budget constraint (by János Kornai) never and never allow to sack people in huge numbers or finish unbenefitable investments. Or they face against angst, angry of chinese society
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Marvin Messina Jul 4, 2016

My candidate for the next Japan is -- Planet Earth.
Because if China and Germany do not find a way to implement the necessary structural reforms to create more demand the complete global economy will become the next Japan and Germany is not even trying.
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C Jared Jul 3, 2016

Where is the evidence that actual reform is taking place? Hukou reforms have been limited. Only shadow banking has something like "market" rates. Yes, there has been lots of talk. Lots and lots of talk. Implementation?
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Jan Smith Jul 3, 2016

China is facing a tradeoff between unbalanced growth and balanced stagnation. So it will give up some growth but no more than it deems necessary to stability. That's why most of its apparent shift to from production to consumption is illusory, due to change in relative prices and not to reallocation of resources.

As everyone should know by now, the USA faces a worse version of the same tradeoff. But if the USA gives up too much growth (due to its overconsumption), the entire world economy would suffer for the foreseeable future.

Have a nice day!
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Walter Gingery Jun 28, 2016

"The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak."

No doubt the Chinese leadership is willing, but willing to accept the unacceptable? How can the Chinese leadership throw overboard all that got them into the leadership in the first place? True reform would require repudiating themselves...

Gorbachev thought that reform required "glasnost" (openness) and "perestroika" (transformation). Xi et al., haven't yet even admitted so much as that. Indeed, he seems to have concluded the opposite: the way to achieve his primary aim -- preservation of the CCP -- is to prevent openness and block transformation.

P.S. My candidate for the next Japan is -- South Korea.
- Walter Gingery Jun 28, 2016
  
  One part of self-repudiation would be transferring economic resources from the state (which they control and benefit from) to the household sector. Therein lies their dilemma: either they continue full speed ahead until the Titanic hits the ice-berg, or they give up wealth and power to others.
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ravi barla Jun 28, 2016

Its not clear as to what measures will help china avoid japan like situation. Secondly, with more than 40% of china's GDP contributed by the investments made by state(unsustainable) and the struggling financial system, how china will come out of this mess any time soon?
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中国会重蹈日本的覆辙吗？

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