Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

De qué depende el fin de la guerra en Siria e Irak

DENVER – La trágica historia de dos ciudades de Medio Oriente (Alepo en Siria y Mosul en Irak) habla de una falta fundamental de consenso en la región y dentro de la comunidad internacional en general. La falta de orden en el orden internacional complica seriamente la tarea de poner fin a estos conflictos.

Cuando por fin termine el sangriento enfrentamiento en Siria, no habrá desfiles victoriosos ni un momento de catarsis nacional. Lo más probable es que habrá un arreglo político que deje a Siria dentro de sus fronteras actuales, pero con niveles de autonomía local que reflejen la diversidad y (al menos, por ahora) la desconfianza mutua de sus diversos grupos étnicos y religiosos. Nadie quedará satisfecho. Las herramientas de un estado civil están ausentes, y no hay instituciones en torno de las cuales construir el consenso social o el imperio de la ley.

Mientras no puedan articularse estos principios amplios, la guerra no llegará a su fin. Los armisticios funcionan mejor (y duran más) cuando los combatientes por fin comprenden que el futuro de su país se definirá sobre la base de un conjunto de principios acordados por la comunidad internacional en general.

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