US dollar.

不必担心美元升值

伦敦—美联储几乎肯定要在12月6日的美联储公开市场委员会政策会议上开始升息。企业、投资者和决策者对于近零利率时代的结束、2004—2008年货币紧缩周期结束以来的首次升息应该抱以多大的担忧?

美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦反复说,即将到来的一连串升息将比此前的货币周期缓慢得多,并预测利率的峰值也要更低。央行官员的这种承诺永远不能太当回事,因为他们的职责决定了他们常常要故意误导投资者,但有很好的理由相信美联储“更长时间更低利率”的承诺是真诚的。

美联储的首要目标是提高通胀率,并确保它保持在2%以上。要实现这一点,耶伦必须将利率保持在极低水平,即使通胀率已经开始上升,正如其前任保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)在20世纪80年代将利率保持在极高水平,即使通胀已经开始下降。这一政策上的反转背后的逻辑是2008年危机以来美国和全世界央行目标的变化。

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