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无协议脱欧是否变得更有可能了?

伦敦—在英国首相特雷莎·梅宣布辞职后,几位接替她的候选人已经宣称希望“无协议脱欧”。作为回应,欧洲领导人正在为英欧关系彻底破裂而加紧准备,金融分析人员正在 相应修改预测,而英镑正陷入崩溃之中。

对无协议脱欧的恐惧是可以理解的。这样一种结果将导致双方认为对英国有序调整与欧盟关系至关重要的18个月过渡期成为不可能。这意味着英国与最大贸易伙伴之间的商务往来将戛然而止,而欧盟与其第二大贸易伙伴(排名仅次于美国)之间也是一样。正如世界各国在2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭后所了解的那样,贸易和金融关系的戛然而止,哪怕仅仅持续短短几周,也会带来长达数年的痛苦。

为强调其中的危险,英国行政部门负责人向内阁提交了一份长达14页(且其内容立刻遭到泄露)的档案报告,该报告不仅描述了潜在的经济和财政损失,而且包含了对国家安全和医疗保健等领域的风险描述。更重要的是,内阁秘书坚持要将这份档案纳入内阁会议纪要,以便证明各部部长,而不是他们的民政或军事顾问,需要为甘冒如此风险而负全责。

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