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لن ينفع البريكست لو كانت بريطانيا في منطقة اليورو

Apr 2, 2018 Yanis Varoufakis

أثينا– "يمكنك الانصراف في أي وقت تشاء، ولكن لا يمكنك المغادرة". قبل استفتاء بريكست لعام 2016، استعرت هذه العبارة من أغنية "فندق كاليفورنيا" لفريق النسور، والتي حققت نجاحا ساحقا في عام 1976، وذلك كحجة ضد خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي. وقد أخبرت الجماهير في جميع أنحاء بريطانيا بأنهم في حال صوتوا لمغادرة الاتحاد الأوروبي، سوف ينتهي بهم الأمر إلى التورط مع المفوضية الأوروبية أكثر من أي وقت مضى.

تدرك رئيسة الوزراء البريطانية تيريزا ماي أن تفكيك دولة عضو من الاتحاد الأوروبي يعد مهمة صعبة ومعقدة للغاية. لكن ما مدى صعوبة خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي لو تبنت المملكة المتحدة اليورو في عام 2000؟

بداية، لن تتم استشارة شعب بريطانيا حول ما إذا كانوا يريدون الخروج من الاتحاد الأوروبي. مع انضمام بريطانيا الافتراضي إلى منطقة اليورو، فإن الإعلان عن استفتاء العضوية كان من شأنه أن يؤدي إلى تشغيل البنوك. وبالنظر إلى العجز المزمن في التجارة الخارجية والحساب الجاري، فإن خروج بريطانيا من منطقة اليورو سيؤدي حتما إلى انخفاض القيمة الدولية للودائع المصرفية البريطانية.

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Nonso Okonkwo Apr 23, 2018

I find it very strange that Southern European countries remained in the Euro, it just doesn't make sense, the Euro is just out of sync of their economies but act like a steroids for their northern counterparts, they just seem to deny the fact that money is the blood of the economy and using a wrong currency, a currency which doesn't reflect your economic standing destroys the economic competitiveness. Does he expect the northern countries to subsidize the south to make up for the loss of competitiveness? The obvious answer is No so why holding on to this illogicality, even the Author is holding out for the Euro, SMH
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Peter Schaeffer Apr 3, 2018

The obvious conclusion is that the UK 'missed a bullet' by staying out of the Euro. So did Sweden by the way. The elimination of the Euro is inevitable, but likely to be very painful. 10 years after the crisis started, Club Med is still broken. Europe won't fix its problems because the real problem is Europe.
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vivek iyer Apr 2, 2018

The true picture here is that if elite British leaders had tried to join the Euro then there would have been a rebellion in both major parties and the elite leadership would have been displaced. That is what has actually happened.

If the UK had wanted to stay in the ERM in 92, it would have had to re-impose Exchange controls because increasing interest rates would have crashed the housing market leaving millions of home owners with negative equity. This was not an option because 'Sterling crises' give salience to particular Trade Unions which can hold the nation hostage. Furthermore, rent seeking cartels would have once again paralysed productivity growth.
What changed in the Nineties was the end of cost push inflation because of the entry of China as well as technological change finally yielding dividends. Furthermore, Markets were more inclined to believe in the effective autonomy of the BoE. This meant the pressure to join the Euro was less. Also the risk was of going in overvalued.
With hindsight, we can see that voters were never as enthused by the EU as the Oxbridge elite. Still, had the UK exercised its right to limit immigration and also changed its tax and benefit system along German lines, it is unlikely that the 'Leave' campaign could have gained so much traction. However it is also apparent that the British simply had no enthusiasm for Europe qua Europe. It was not the case that its regional or national politicians saw it as a milch cow or a platform yielding higher visibility. In most countries, to be an European Commissioner would have been a big deal. For a Brit, it was a confession of failure- less prestigious than even being Governor of Hong Kong.

The tension in 'ordoliberal' Europe is between countries which play by the rules and those which are corrupt and break all the rules. Greece can obey the rules and get rid of corruption. It may be that Poland and Hungary can't. This does not mean the EU will break up but that politicians will resile from further integration.

No doubt, Britain's decision is costly for existing wealth holders. However, unrestricted migration appears to affect quality of life more for most British voters so both main parties have committed to Brexit.

Britain didn't join the Euro, it didn't join Shengen, and its attempts at asserting a global role in partnership with the EU backfired spectacularly.Quitting Europe and accepting greater tariff related uncertainty is a price that has to be paid- but it isn't a crushing one.

Varoufakis speaks of 'full fledged fiscal union' as something that could have 'emerged in 2008.' He still believes that there is a possible world where Northern and Western European countries would redistribute money to Greece- not its poorer neighbours. This is a fantasy. Even when the North or West of a country subsidises the South or East, still the subsidised region gets depopulated and declines.
- Ndungu Kamau Apr 3, 2018
  
  I have to say, that this is a excellent analysis of Britain's relationship to the Euro. Britain tends to do the right thing for all the wrong reason, and the wrong thing for all the wrong reason. Wilson refused to create a fiscal technology union in the 60s because of a dead special relationship with the USA
  as shown by Stuart Holland. They entered Thatcher entered ERM to prove that Britain was as competitive as Germany after her program through out the 80s had just eviscerated the nations industrial capacity.
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لن ينفع البريكست لو كانت بريطانيا في منطقة اليورو

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