Highway billboard of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. sarahchats/Flickr

Pourquoi François Hollande a raison sur la Syrie

PARIS – Oublions les arguments de principe et de morale. Oublions, ou essayons d’oublier, les 250000 morts dont Bachar al-Asad a pris la responsabilité directe ou indirecte en décidant, il y a presque cinq ans, de répondre par les armes au soulèvement de son peuple. Mettons de côté le fait qu’il a sur la conscience dix à quinze fois plus de meurtres de civils qu’un Etat Islamique dont les vidéos mondialisées ont occulté ses propres massacres sans images. Il y a cinq raisons au moins qui font qu’on ne peut pas dire, même du point de vue de la seule « real politique », qu’il soit une « alternative » à Daech.

1.      Il l’a créé. En libérant de prison, en mai 2011, des centaines d'islamistes qui allaient très vite fournir à la nouvelle organisation ses premiers combattants et ses cadres, en pilonnant les positions rebelles modérées tout en épargnant non moins méthodiquement le fief de l'Etat Islamique à Raqa, en laissant enfin les coupeurs de tête irakiens trouver, autour de l’été 2014, un sanctuaire à l’est du pays, il a façonné le monstre qu’il prétend aujourd'hui combattre. N’est-ce pas beaucoup d’ambiguités pour un possible allié ? Et est-ce une bonne et saine base pour un combat prétendument commun ?

2.      Il n’a aucun intérêt à vaincre. Absolument aucun. On peut même dire, sans risque de beaucoup se tromper, que l’homme qui a réussi à vendre aux trois quarts de la planète l’idée selon laquelle il serait le dernier rempart face à Daesh, sera aussi le dernier à vouloir son élimination. A-t-on jamais vu un joueur d’échecs, fût-il médiocre ou aveuglé, sacrifier sa pièce maîtresse ? Un assuré, sa police d’assurance ? Et croit-on Bachar et les siens assez bêtes pour n’avoir pas intégré le fait qu’ils ne doivent leur survie politique qu’à celle de leur jumeau et au fait de s’être imposés comme ceux par lesquels il faut nécessairement passer pour lutter contre la mal absolu?

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