全球化美联储

牛津—美国应该担心其货币政策是否正在给新兴和发展中国家(EMDC)造成严重伤害?这是实施量化宽松计划如火如荼的面联储所面临的问题,其每个月都买长期资产的操作驱使渴望收益的投资者涌入这些国家,造成它们的货币升值、资产价格上涨。如今,这仍是一个紧迫问题,因为美联储正在减少资产买入规模,造成了资本流逆转,许多EMDC大有高处不胜寒之感。

和大部分观察者所认为的相反,仔细审视美联储的使命或争论发展中国家决策者的记录并不能找到答案。相反,这一问题与美国是否以及如何愿意领导全球经济有关。如果美国想捍卫开放、稳定的全球金融秩序,就不可以忽视新兴市场当前的动荡。

自从去年“逐渐退出”的声音出现以来,越来越多的EMDC感受到了压力:它们的货币在贬值,资本在外逃,央行在阻止国内增长减缓和维持外部稳定的双重任务之间疲于奔命。发达经济体刚刚尚处于萌芽状态的复苏似乎正在到处制造动荡,从阿根廷到土耳其和印度概莫能外。

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