El conflicto en Medio Oriente entra a otra fase

Jul 7, 2017 Shlomo Ben-Ami

TEL AVIV – Con la expulsión de Estado Islámico (ISIS) de sus bastiones en Siria e Irak mediante las batallas de Mosul y Raqqa, y la guerra civil siria convertida en una guerra de desgaste, los conflictos más agudos de Medio Oriente comienzan a evolucionar rápidamente. Pero eso no implica que su solución esté cerca.

El autoproclamado califato de ISIS nunca fue un estado al que fuera posible forzar a una rendición incondicional; por eso las batallas de Mosul y Raqqa nunca iban a ser decisivas, incluso logrando la eliminación de los santuarios de la milicia. La expansión de ISIS a Libia y la península del Sinaí en Egipto revela la abundancia de áreas poco controladas en las que la banda puede penetrar.

Por el momento, ISIS pasó a una estrategia de planear e inspirar atentados terroristas en Medio Oriente, Europa e incluso el sudeste de Asia. Tal vez su próximo paso sea desestabilizar los regímenes árabes desde dentro (una estrategia que las coaliciones internacionales que están cerrando el cerco en torno de Raqqa no pueden contrarrestar).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Melih Erdogmus Jul 10, 2017

With a condign refer to the dislodging of the Islamic State from its strongholds, it's inevitable to keep in mind that the IS is still mobilized throughout Syria and Iraq. Surprisingly, President Erdogan is more likely to be interested in the referendum in Nothern Iraq rather than the support of his own to the chaos in the region given the fact that he did eveything he could have to defeat liberalism and secularism in Turkey in the last 15 years. With his higher priority to take down President Bashar al-Assad, millions of people had to leave their country because of the civil war caused by the rebels backed by the Western countries with the physical help of Turkey in terms of arming and training the rebels. It does not seem like a wise choice to choose an Arab ally to support with the burden of at-around 4 million Syrians to the national economy and public structure, by the way, which is not taken into consideration as a problem by his self-claimed notion.
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Paul Daley Jul 10, 2017

Sunni states are obviously having difficulties in coping with the moral and political power that Iran has garnered from its combination of religion and democracy. Turkey is the nearest analogue to Iran among the Sunni states, but its movement away from secularism has damaged its relations with Western states, including Israel.

However, Western secularism carries little weight in the Middle East. And, contrary to Ben Ami's suggestion, democratic reform among the Gulf states is as likely to produce states in Iran's orbit (a la Iraq) as Sunni democracies. That all suggests that the West set aside its concerns about secularism, and, simply in the interest of maintaining a balance of power in the Gulf, accept Turkey's model of Islamic democracy and its leadership among Sunni states.
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga Jul 10, 2017

Shlomo Ben-Ami reporting from the trench is the run-of-the-mill distraction produced for zombie news watchers.

But I think of Occam's razor, the simpler the explanation of a phenomenon is generally the most likely. Because multiple complicated explanations may be seeded with fraud.

I can not think of any other conflict with more diverse and complicated explanations than the Middle East.

Let's get simple. The whole conflict depends on US frackers cutting costs to below Middle East costs. That will set the timing for what is going to be unleashed. It is an all-in bet on the dollar hegemony, the very source of American prosperity.

Reagan swiftly understood that the Soviet Union Achilles heel was income. By setting the Star Wars in motion he bankrupted the Soviets, who by their own misjudgement, were out of the dollar system since after the Cuban Crisis.

Bush II swiftly understood that America's most critical asset was the dollar (as a reserve currency), and that lacking military advantage, America's enemies would aim at killing America's currency.

And he sat in motion the race for American oil independence, hence American shale oil boom and its unparalleled technology . Mission accomplished. Being oil independent means America could unleash map changing policies and fail, without risking a devastating oil shortage at home.

Step two. Induce economic suffocation in the Middle East. Fracking technology improvements in cost-cutting have delivered better results than ever imagined. And sooner than anticipated.

Oil frackers have a break/even about 40 dollars a barrel. If oil futures are above that, they instantly book a profit by hedging production. Huge sums funded by high yield bonds are after achieving much greater fracking efficiency.

Step three. Simulate good vibrations. US-Iran nuclear deal and US arms sales to Saudi Arabia are clear examples, where the US policy tries to minimize friction with enemies.

Step Four. Permanently induce regional tension, up to the point of heating nerves between neighbors. Arab Springs, Lybia, Egypt, Irak, Syria etc are heating points. Alike a volcano caldera.

Step Five. It will come the day when regional economic pain together with regional (US fomented) gut hatred will lit the pile of tinder. And a conflict similar to WW I will erupt in the region.

The conflict will bring an oil shock, with most countries severely cutting production as military conflict deepens. Oil and natgaz prices will go to the roof, for the great benefit of US and Russia. Europe will endure huge economic downfall.

China will be cornered to a very unsettling decision making point: if it joins the conflict it can forget of a quick resolution, thus creating economic havoc at home and an unprecedented social unrest (a war with two fronts is a bad idea); If if tries to foster a quick resolution of the conflict, China will lose political leverage on a worldwide basis for decades.

Alike WW I, very unnatural alliances between neighbors will take shape. Indeed this is already happening (Qatar-Iran-Turkey versus 5 country Saudi Arabia led-coalition), but it is in its infancy.

US, Russia and China rulers have zero interest in having a shooting conflict with any other super power. Some economic logic prevails.

Since nor Russia neither China can compete with US fracking technology, they know beforehand THIS "war" is lost.

Step Six. Dollar dominance

All the Middle East countries in conflict will see the value of their own currencies plummet. EURO will dramatically lose value due to economic depression. The dollars parked in European banks (the very real source of their wholesale financing) will be called upon and the banks will face resolution. The forex demand for US dollars will be outlandish. The Federal Reserve may initially grant zillions in dollar swaps as a bear trap to sinking economies. The swaps will be due at a time the dollar is priceless...

Same bidding frenzy for all commodities, including agricultural. For the first time in decades dollars and commodities will be frantically bid in unison. However, countries in conflict will not be able to sell oil / natgaz as supertanker transportation will be frozen.

Russia will generate tremendous income by skyrocketing commodity prices. Obviously some large over the counter sales of obsolete arms will take place somewhere. And China will have to treat Russia pretty nicely, at the risk of losing access to Russian oil, which would literally choke Chinese manufacturing in full.

The US will make sure all sides in conflict are well equipped as to generate tremendous worldwide uncertainty and fear. Ultimately they will give help enough to the side that gives full assurance of a continued petrodollar hegemony for the next decades. Middle East oil and natgaz will be under US supervision. Oil prices will not come back to pre-conflict levels. Borders will be redrawn accordingly.

Critical pre-condition for conflict is economic suffocation.
Watch out break-even prices for US fracking industry.
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j. von Hettlingen Jul 10, 2017

Shlomo Ben-Ami highlights the complex situation in the Middle East that gives little reason for optimism even though the Islamic State is being "dislodged" from its strongholds in Iraq and Syria. While a war of attrition is being fought in Syria, state actors like Iran, Turkey, Israel and Russia as well as non-state actors like the Kurds and Sunni militants are pursuing their own interests.
The Middle East is engulfed by Islamic extremism, political turnover, failling oil revenues in rentier states, and an age-old sectarian tensions caused by the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Even if ISIS is driven out of Iraq and Syria, it can find safe haven in Libya, the Sinai Peninsula etc, because "there are plenty of loosely controlled areas available to be penetrated." There ISIS can continue to plan and inspire heinous attacks from Europe to Southeast Asia. Even though the Islamists are backed by the Sunnis, they wouldn't hesitate to topple autocratic regimes in the region.
The author admonishes Trump's strategy, which focuses narrowly on the Saudis' "fear" of ISIS and Iran. This escalates the conflict with Iran, which holds considerable sway in the region through its network of militias, including the Lebanese Hezbollah. Iran’s goal is to carve out a zone of influence in territories rid of ISIS control, "strengthening its grip" in southern Syria along the Israeli and Jordanian borders. This serves "as part of a broader effort to build a Shia-controlled crescent stretching from Iran through Iraq (already practically an Iranian trusteeship) to Syria and Lebanon. "
The author says, "Israel, a tacit member of the US-sponsored Sunni alliance, will not sit idly by and watch such a crescent take shape." In fact, Israel has "made it clear" that it would contain Iran's expansion and allies "along the Golan Heights border" by all - military - means. And the US shares the same view.
But Iran is not the only player that seeks to "redraw borders to its own benefit." ISIS, backed by Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared its caliphate in 2014 as a "challenge to the 100-year-old Sykes-Picot order." Sadly he denies the Kurds' the right to have a state of their own. Although they have made huge "contributions to defeating ISIS" their dream of a Greater Kurdistan will not be fulfilled, as it would "be wedged between four countries – Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria – that bitterly oppose it."
Turkey sees Kurdish fighters in Syria and rebels of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), as a bigger threat than ISIS. Ankara will prevent the Syrian Kurds from uniting with their Kurdish brethern across the border to Turkey. That Iraq’s Kurdistan autonomous region, is going to hold an independence referendum in September won't help the Kurds in other countries to advance their cause, because the Iraqi Kurdistan came into being as a result of the 2005 constitution in Iraq.
Russia has rekindled its relationship with Syria since its Soviet era. Apart from its decades-old naval base in Latakia, Russia has also an airbase there. The Kremlin will not help resolve the conflicts between Turkey and its PKK, or between the Sunni and Shia Muslims. Momentarily it shares Iran’s "goal" of securing the Assad regime. "But, as soon as the situation is stabilized, the tacit alliance will surely dissolve into a bitter competition for political control of Syria."
To isolate Iran, the Saudi-led coalition is determined to punish Qatar for its cooperation with Teheran. Iran and Turkey stand by their rich Qatari ally and "fill the trade void left by the Saudis. "Turkey has also deployed troops to its military base in Qatar."
The author says Iran and Qatar aren't the Saudis' real problem. The real problem is more homegrown - to heed their citizens' demands and adapt themselves to new challenges posed by our 21st century. These "combative alliances and colossal arms deals" with the US won't solve their domestic problems. For this reason the Sunni autocrats feel comfortable with Trump, because he - unlike Obama - doesn't criticise them for their poor human rights record. But if countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia "continue on their current path, they may end up facing sociopolitical explosions at home – and deepening conflicts abroad."
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Khalil Bitar Jul 9, 2017

Shlomo Ben-Ami - How come Palestine and the Palestinians are nowhere to be seen in your article and the "The Next Phase of Middle East Conflict" analysis you have provided?
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Michael Veloski Jul 9, 2017

Is the Pentagon setting up tripwires in Syria? If US forces come under fire from Iran or others and Russia is complicit, there goes Trump. More happening here than meets the eye.
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ROHIT CHANDAVARKER Jul 9, 2017

The Middle East is turning into a tinder box, mostly of its own making. The principal fight is ostensibly a Shia-Sunni one with an objective of gaining control over the affairs of the Arab world.
Saudi Arabia sought to punish Qatar with help from UAE, Egypt & Bahrain in order to wean Qatar away from its supposedly errant ways of hurting the Sunni cause. However, the Saudis may have miscalculated their adventurism, since Iran promptly filled the void left by Saudis. The Saudis, possibly, overestimated their importance. Unwittingly, Iran has been given a free entry into Mid East affairs by their strong support to Qatar. Trump might have miscalculated too, in aligning with the Saudis as Qatar is home to Centcom's biggest base at Al Udeid. A split in GCC is imminent thereby fracturing the Gulf states further. Meanwhile Iran's writ seems growing, much to the Saudis' chagrin. A stalemate in Yemen, a protracted battle in Syria, a messy war in Libya & an unstable Egypt.Saudis' cup of woes is now increased by its spat with Qatar. In the midst of this, one hears MBS' elevation in Saudi Arabia. The Kurds have called for a referendum under Barzani in KAR of Iraq. This would further add to troubles for the region. Hence the entire region has entered a period of uncertainty & instability, a perfect recipe for radicals to thrive & possibly destabilise the region further. Perhaps the single most destabilising cause is the depressed oil revenues leading to domestic dissatisfaction. Tough times ahead for the Middle East, indeed.
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vivek iyer Jul 8, 2017

I can't believe what I'm reading. This post was written on the 7th of July- a fortnight after the Saudi ultimatum to Qatar. Yet our erudite author writes- ' The region’s Sunni powers, emboldened by Trump’s approach, have now closed ranks against both ISIS and Iran, even though they themselves are often mortal enemies.' Has Shlomo been on holiday on some Tropical isle cut off from the internet and the telephone for the last month? How can he not know that Qatar is Sunni, indeed Wahhabi, and that it had good relations with Iran. Moreover, Turkish troops (Turks are mainly Hanafi Sunni) have come to support them and Saudi Arabia is protesting and demanding that they leave.

Reading further, we find that Shlomo does in fact know what is happening. Maybe he started this article some time ago and didn't want to scrap the opening paragraphs despite recent events. Shlomo is not alone in this type of thrift. Israel has been sticking to one unchanging script- just adding noise to signal- for some time now.

Shlomo thinks the Syrian regime is 'Shia' and thus somehow in cahoots with Iran and wants to create a 'Shia crescent'. The truth is the Alawis have adopted Sunni orthopraxy- the younger generation is not indoctrinated in their esoteric lore- though, no doubt, many are somewhat laxer in their observance. Iran, under the Ayatollahs sought to appeal to all Muslims in an ecumenical manner. For Iranian intellectuals, Gobineau's racialist view of Shia religion as 'Aryan' was anathema. The Ayatollahs completely rejected this view. They promoted Arabic, and sought to curtail observances scandalous to Sunnis. However, precisely because they were appealing to a conservative, ecumenical, Islam, they posed an existential threat to the Saudis whose rule is closely associated with Wahhabism.

The one thing Shlomo does not mention in this article is the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet, that is the key to what is happening. Egypt has never been anti-Shia. They take pride in Fatimid achievements. The Brotherhood isn't particularly sectarian. Thus it poses an existential threat to the Saudi (but not the Qatari) brand of Wahhabism. Obviously it also poses an existential threat to the Egyptian military dictatorship. Erdogan, because of his own problems with the Turkish Army, was always favourably disposed to the Brotherhood. Indeed, at one time, he thought ISIS might have some affinity to them. He was disastrously wrong. But so were some other regional players.

'America's Sunni allies' don't exist. They are not 'drawn to Trump.' Saudi Arabia has bought a certain amount of influence in Washington. Trump can smell that money and is eager to please. The fact that the Saudi's are talking of Qatari financing of terror- at a time when they themselves may be forced by an American Court to compensate 9/11 victims' families- is a bonus.

Israel has legitimate security concerns in the Sinai and the Golan heights. However, there is little evidence that these concerns have not been addressed. There is absolutely no need for Israelis- of whatever political inclination- to carry on pretending there is some 'Shia conspiracy'.
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