Raqqa mosque destroyed by Islamic State Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

中东冲突新阶段

特拉维夫——随着摩苏尔和拉卡的战斗拔掉伊斯兰国设在叙利亚和伊拉克的据点,以及叙利亚内战最终沦为一场消耗战,中东最尖锐的冲突正在快速发展变化。但那并不意味着很快就能解决冲突。

伊斯兰国自封的哈里发王国从来就不是一个可以无条件投降的国家,这意味着摩苏尔和拉卡的战斗永远不会取得决定性胜利,即使它们的确摧毁了伊斯兰国的庇护所。就像伊斯兰国向利比亚和埃及西奈半岛的扩张所凸显的那样,有足够多的控制松散地区可供伊斯兰国进行渗透。

现在,伊斯兰国已经将在中东、欧洲乃至南亚策划和鼓动恐怖袭击作为其自身的战略。该组织下一步的战略很可能是从内部破坏阿拉伯政权的稳定——目前围困拉卡的国际联盟根本无法抗衡这样的战略。

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