Im neuen Jahr dieselbe Krise

DAVOS – Durch die Maßnahmen der Europäischen Zentralbank vom letzten Dezember, insbesondere durch die langfristigen Refinanzierungsgeschäfte (LTRO), wurden die Liquiditätsprobleme europäischer Banken erleichtert, nicht aber die finanziellen Nachteile der hoch verschuldeten Mitgliedsstaaten ausgeglichen. Da Hochrisikoprämien auf Anleihen die Kapitaldeckung von Banken gefährden, ist eine halbe Lösung nicht ausreichend.

Tatsächlich wird durch diese vermeintliche Lösung die halbe Eurozone auf den Status von Drittweltländern reduziert, die hohe Schulden in einer fremden Währung angehäuft haben. Anstelle des Internationalen Währungsfonds ist es Deutschland, das sich wie ein Zuchtmeister verhält und ihnen strenge Haushaltsdisziplin aufdrängt. Dies könnte zu sowohl wirtschaftlichen als auch politischen Spannungen und damit zur Zerstörung der Europäischen Union führen.

Ich habe einen Plan vorgeschlagen, der es Italien und Spanien ermöglichen würde, ihre Schulden über Schuldverschreibungen zu etwa 1% zu refinanzieren. Ich habe ihn nach meinem Freund Tomasso Padoa-Schioppa benannt, der in den 1990er Jahren als Notenbanker in Italien dazu beigetragen hat, die Finanzen des Landes zu stabilisieren. Der Plan ist ziemlich kompliziert, aber rechtlich und technisch gut durchdacht. Ich beschreibe ihn detailliert in meinem Buch Financial Turmoil in Europe and the United States.

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