Paul Lachine

Nuevas sacudidas en las finanzas y el comercio mundial

PALO ALTO – Ahora que la economía global y la de Estados Unidos están en las primeras etapas de la recuperación posterior a la recesión, quedan preguntas serias sobre la fuerza y sostenibilidad de esa recuperación. Además de las tradicionales preocupaciones relacionadas con el ciclo empresarial, hay una larga lista de tensiones políticas que amenazan con frenar el crecimiento, incluyendo: 1) el proteccionismo; 2) las monedas; 3) las estrategias de salida de los estímulos monetarios y fiscales; y 4) la explosión de la deuda pública.

La recuperación de las recesiones profundas suele ser fuerte – la economía estadounidense se recuperó de otras dos recesiones profundas posteriores a la Segunda Guerra Mundial con crecimientos anuales reales de más del 6% durante tres años. Pero nadie prevé un crecimiento similar esta vez porque las recuperaciones de las crisis financieras generalmente son lentas y dolorosas.

Vale la pena recordar las dimensiones reales de la Gran Depresión de los años treinta, con la que los políticos comparan esta recesión para justificar una enorme intervención del gobierno. De 1929 a 1933, el PIB real de los Estados Unidos cayó 30% y la tasa de desempleo llegó casi al 25%, mientras que la depresión misma duró más de una década - todas esas cifras son múltiplos grandes de la caída reciente y del deterioro algo mayor que la intervención ayudó a evitar.

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