Paul Lachine

Neue Erschütterungen der globalen Finanzen und im Handel

PALO ALTO – Während sich die amerikanische Wirtschaft und Volkswirtschaften weltweit nach der Rezession in der Anfangsphase ihrer Erholung befinden, bleiben ernste Fragen nach der Kraft und Nachhaltigkeit dieser Erholung. Zusätzlich zu den üblichen Bedenken hinsichtlich des Konjunkturverlaufs existiert eine lange Liste politischer Spannungen, die das Wachstum gefährden. Hierzu zählen: 1) Protektionismus; 2) Währungen; 3) Exit-Strategien für die Abkehr von einer Lockerung der Geldpolitik und Konjunkturanreizen und 4) die Explosion der Staatsverschuldung.

Die Erholung von tiefen Rezessionen ist normalerweise deutlich – die amerikanische Wirtschaft hat sich von den beiden anderen schweren Rezessionen nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg mit einem jährlichen realen Wachstum von mehr als 6% über drei Jahre erholt. Gegenwärtig prognostiziert jedoch niemand ein derart kräftiges Wachstum, da die Erholung von Finanzkrisen gewöhnlich langsam und schmerzhaft ist.  

Man sollte sich die tatsächlichen Dimensionen der Weltwirtschaftskrise der 1930-er Jahre   vergegenwärtigen, mit der Politiker diese Rezession vergleichen, um massive Eingriffe durch die Regierungen zu rechtfertigen. Von 1929 bis 1933 fiel das reale BIP in den Vereinigten Staaten um 30% und die Arbeitslosenquote betrug fast 25%, wobei die Wirtschaftskrise selbst mehr als ein Jahrzehnt anhielt – allesamt Werte, die um ein Vielfaches höher sind als beim jüngsten Rückgang und bei dem etwas größeren wirtschaftlichen Verfall, der unter anderem durch die Eingriffe abgewendet worden ist.

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