Paul Lachine

Nové záchvěvy v globálních financích a obchodu

PALO ALTO – V době, kdy se americká i globální ekonomika nacházejí v rané fázi zotavování se po recesi, přetrvává několik závažných otázek o síle a udržitelnosti tohoto zotavení. Kromě tradičních obav souvisejících s obchodním cyklem zde existuje i dlouhá řada politických napětí hrozících zaškrtit růst. Patří sem mimo jiné 1) protekcionismus, 2) měnová otázka, 3) strategie ústupu od monetárního a fiskálního stimulu a 4) exploze veřejného dluhu.

Po hluboké recesi bývá zotavení obvykle silné – ze dvou dalších hlubokých recesí po druhé světové válce se americká ekonomika zotavovala reálným růstem přesahujícím 6% ročně po dobu tří let. Tak silný růst však dnes nikdo nepředpovídá, poněvadž zotavení se z finančních krizí bývají obvykle pomalá a bolestná.

Stojí za to si připomenout skutečné rozměry velké hospodářské krize z 30. let minulého století, s níž politici porovnávají současnou recesi, aby ospravedlnili mohutné vládní zásahy. Od roku 1929 do roku 1933 poklesl reálný HDP ve Spojených státech o 30% a míra nezaměstnanosti dosáhla téměř 25%, přičemž samotná deprese trvala více než deset let – vesměs jde o vysoké násobky současného poklesu i poněkud většího poklesu, jemuž intervence pomohla zabránit.

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