Paul Lachine

全球金融与贸易的新震荡

帕洛阿尔托 ——

当美国与世界经济进入衰退后复苏的早期阶段时,关于本次复苏强度及可持续性的重大问题仍然盘踞在世人面前。在传统商业周期考虑之外,还存在着许多可能制约增长的政策压力,这其中包括了四个方面:一是保护主义;二是货币;三是货币及财政刺激方案的退出战略;四是公共债务的激增。

走出深度衰退的复苏往往势头强劲:美国经济从另外两次二战后的深度衰退中恢复元气时,都曾在三年时间内实现了超过 6% 的年均实际增长率。不过,如今却没有人做出此般强劲增长的预测,这是因为从金融危机中走向复苏的过程,往往既缓慢又痛苦。

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