Paul Lachine

Pays émergents et tsunami de capitaux

NEW-YORK – Depuis des décennies les flux de capitaux en direction des pays émergents suivent un mouvement de yoyo. L'année dernière il y a encore eu un phénomène de ce genre avec l'arrivée massive de capitaux, de titres et d'investissements à revenu fixe sur les marchés émergents supposés avoir de bons fondamentaux macroéconomiques, financiers et politiques.

Ce véritable tsunami tient à des facteurs cycliques à court terme (les différentiels de taux d'intérêt et un flot de liquidité à la recherche d'actifs à haut rendement, en raison de taux d'intérêt quasiment nuls et de la poursuite des mesures de relâchement monétaire qui réduisent les opportunités dans les pays avancées aux économies atrophiées). Mais des facteurs séculaires interviennent aussi : le différentiel de croissance à long terme entre pays émergents et pays avancés, la tendance croissante des investisseurs à étendre leur activité à de nouveaux marchés et l'attente de l'appréciation à long terme des devises des pays émergents (en terme nominal et en terme réel).

Au vu de ces éléments, la question clé qui se pose aux pays émergents est de savoir comment faire face à ce flux de capitaux qui va inéluctablement pousser à la hausse leur devise et menacer leurs exportations qui sont le moteur de leur croissance.

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