Paul Lachine

怎么对付热钱?

纽约——几十年来,流入新兴市场经济体的资本潮起潮落,循环往复。去年一场资本海啸又激起一轮高潮,股权投资和固定收益投资资金争先恐后涌入新兴市场,因为觉得那里的宏观经济、政策与金融基本面依然强劲。

这一轮资本流入一方面是受短期性、周期性因素的影响,(比如利率差,再比如复苏迟缓的发达经济体维持零利率且屡屡搞量化宽松,减少了资金的获利机会等等),但一些长期性、历史性因素的作用也不容忽视。这些长期性的因素包括:新兴市场相对于发达经济体而言的长期性增速优势、投资者向海外市场分散资金的更强意愿以及新兴市场货币的名义与实际汇率长期升值的预期等。

有鉴于此,新兴市场眼下最严峻的政策考验就是,如何应对资本流入及其效应,即本币升值与出口受挫。

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