Cybersecurity Philippe Huguen/AFP/Getty Images

控制网络冲突

拉斯维加斯—最近网络安全专家们齐聚拉斯维加斯黑帽(BlackHat)年会,其中60%的人预测美国将在未来两年之内遭遇针对其重要基础设施的成功的袭击。美国政坛仍然处在俄罗斯网络干预2016年大选所引起的地震之中。网络袭击将是未来潮流吗?还是可以制定出规范来控制国际网络冲突?

我们可以从核时代的历史中汲取教训。网络与核技术固然大相径庭,但社会学习应对高破坏性技术的过程则表现出很有意义的相似性。在核时代,各国用了大约二十年时间达成了第一批合作协定。如果我们将和安全问题的源头从20世纪90年代末上网人数迅速膨胀让互联网成为经济和军事互相依存的基础(从而也让我们越来越脆弱)算起,而不是20世纪70年代互联网诞生时算起,那么现在合作也已经到了二十年的门槛。

核时代的第一批合作努力是以联合国为核心的条约。这些努力没有取得成功。1946年,美国提出了巴鲁克(Bauch)计划,让联合国来控制核能,而苏联断然拒绝让自己处于技术劣势。直到1962年的古巴导弹危机发生后,才在1963年签署了第一份军备控制协定,即部分禁止核试验条约(Limited Test Ban Treaty)。

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