Extremo Oriente en un punto de inflexión

NUEVA DELHI – Las actuales transiciones políticas en Extremo Oriente prometen marcar un momento de definiciones en la inquieta geopolítica de la región. Tras el ascenso en China de Xi Jinping, a quien el Ejército Popular de Liberación (EPL) considera uno de los suyos, parece que la próxima elección en Japón traerá un giro hacia la derecha, resultado que probablemente avivará las pasiones nacionalistas a ambos lados de la rivalidad sinojaponesa.

El previsible vuelco derechista de Japón se producirá más de tres años después de que los votantes dieran el poder al Partido Democrático de Japón, de tendencia izquierdista. En Corea del Sur, en cambio, es posible que el resultado de la elección programada para el 19 de diciembre (apenas tres días después de que los japoneses vayan a las urnas) sea un giro del país hacia la izquierda, después de casi cinco años de presidencia del derechista Lee Myung-bak, cuyo gobierno tuvo un efecto polarizador sobre la sociedad coreana.

Estos cambios políticos pueden agravar los desafíos a los que se enfrenta Extremo Oriente, entre ellos la necesidad de instituir un equilibrio de poder regional y desembarazarse del lastre de la historia que complica las relaciones entre diversos países, especialmente China, Japón y Corea del Sur. El auge del comercio en la región no bastó para silenciar o moderar estas disputas (territoriales y de otra clase); por el contrario, tensó la geopolítica regional y dio rienda suelta a una peligrosa escalada de provocaciones. La interdependencia económica no será suficiente para lograr la estabilidad regional, a menos que los estados rivales realicen esfuerzos genuinos para componer sus relaciones políticas.

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