东亚转折点

新德里—东亚政治交接将是该地区动荡不安的地缘政治的决定性时刻。习近平成为中国领导人并获得了解放军的认可,日本似乎将在即将到来的选举中向右转——这一结果可能助长中日对峙双方的民族主义热情。

在左倾的民主党上台三年后,日本预计将再次向右转。相反,韩国的选举——将于12月19日举行,就在日本选举三天后——将让该国在右倾总统李明博掌权五年后向左转,而李明博显然是个走极端的领导人。

这些政治交接可能让东亚挑战复杂化,东亚需要形成一个地区全力平衡,摆脱让各国间交恶的历史负担,特别是中日韩三国之间的历史问题。地区贸易繁荣没能让领土和其他纠纷消声甚至缓和;相反,还激化了地区地缘政治,导致了一系列高风险冒险政策。经济上的相互依赖无法带来地区稳定,除非对峙国采取真心实意的措施修复它们之间的政治关系。

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