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Neue geldpolitische Spielregeln

NEW DELHI – Unsere Welt steht vor einer zunehmend gefährlichen Situation. Sowohl die hochentwickelten Länder als auch die Schwellenvolkswirtschaften brauchen Wachstum, um innenpolitische Spannungen abzubauen. Doch nur in wenigen gibt es Wachstum. Wenn die Regierungen reagieren, indem sie Politiken umsetzen, die Wachstum aus anderen Ländern abziehen, so wird diese Taktik zulasten der Nachbarn lediglich anderswo Instabilität fördern. Was wir daher brauchen, sind neue Spielregeln.

Warum erweist es sich derzeit als so schwierig, die Wachstumsraten aus der Zeit vor der großen Rezession wiederherzustellen? Die unmittelbare Antwort hierauf ist, dass der der globalen Finanzkrise von 2008 vorhergegangene Boom den hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften einen wachstumshemmenden Schuldenüberhang hinterlassen hat. Und während sich möglicherweise Abhilfe schaffen ließe, indem man zur Steigerung der Nachfrage Schulden abschreibt, ist es unklar, ob Abschreibungen politisch umsetzbar sind oder die daraus herrührende Nachfrage nachhaltig ist. Darüber hinaus könnten strukturelle Faktoren wie eine alternde Bevölkerung und eine niedrige Produktivitätszunahme – die bisher von der schuldenfinanzierten Nachfrage verdeckt wurden – die Erholung beeinträchtigen.

Die Politiker wissen, dass Strukturreformen – zur Steigerung des Wettbewerbs, zur Innovationsförderung und um einen institutionellen Wandel voranzutreiben – der richtige Weg sind, um strukturelle Wachstumshemmnisse auszuräumen. Doch sie wissen auch, dass die durch die Reformen bedingten Schmerzen sofortiger Art sind, während die Erfolge normalerweise mit Verzögerung eintreten und unklar ist, wer davon profitiert. Jean-Claude Juncker, damals noch luxemburgischer Ministerpräsident, hat es auf dem Höhepunkt der Eurokrise so formuliert: „Wir alle wissen, was zu tun ist; wir wissen nur nicht, wie wir wiedergewählt werden können, nachdem wir es getan haben!“

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