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Un nouveau modèle pour l’investissement chinois à l’étranger

BEIJING – Deux initiatives chinoises — « Une ceinture, une route » (UCUR) et la « Coopération internationale en matière de capacité de production » — synthétisent la vision du président Xi Jinping pour l’investissement à l’étranger. Les deux mots d’ordre sont étayés par des axes de développement (le premier en Eurasie, l’autre à l’échelle mondiale) qui présagent de la volonté de la Chine d’établir un nouveau modèle de mondialisation fondé sur la coopération.

Les entreprises chinoises prennent déjà au sérieux ces axes d’investissement. D’ici 2020, les actifs de la Chine à l’étranger devraient tripler, à 20 000 milliards $, de la base actuelle de 6 400 milliards $. Pourtant la ruée des investissements dans des projets à l’étranger, même s’ils reçoivent l’aval de beaucoup de Chinois, comporte des risques non négligeables — et pourrait créer un surendettement — s’ils ne sont pas bien encadrés. Pour que les sociétés chinoises, qu’elles soient détenues par l’État ou par des intérêts privés, puissent tirer leur épingle du jeu de cette nouvelle vision directrice, elles doivent apprendre de leurs échecs et orienter leurs priorités sur le long terme.

L’Amérique latine est une des grandes régions où la Chine tente de remodeler sa stratégie d’investissement extérieur. Ces dernières années, la Chine a cherché activement à établir sur de nouvelles bases ses liens diplomatiques et économiques bilatéraux avec cette région du monde. La publication en novembre 2016 du second volet de la politique de la Chine à l’égard de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (qui a succédé à la tournée de Xi en Amérique latine le même mois) a créé une chance unique d’augmenter les investissements bilatéraux, en les inscrivant dans une optique plus coopérative. Les démarches antérieures, fréquemment endossées par des prêts à haut risque qui ont parfois mal tourné, ont occasionné des pertes aux investisseurs chinois.

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