Das neue China

Die chinesische Staatsführung hat sich zu ihren jährlichen Beratungen in den Badeort Beidahe zurückgezogen. Im Mittelpunkt ihrer Beratungen, die auch vom Rest der Welt mit Spannung verfolgt werden, steht die Nachfolge von Präsident Jiang Zemin und Ministerpräsident Zhu Rongji. Welches Erbe werden die Nachfolger Jiangs antreten? Eine Analyse von Kenichi Ohmae.

In den nächsten Jahrzehnten wird sich China zu einem völlig neuen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Gefüge entwickeln. Mit schonungslosem Wettbewerb in Politik und Wirtschaft, mit Innovationsgeist und Flexibilität wird China eine Vormachtstellung in der Welt einnehmen, die nur noch von Amerika übertroffen wird.

Zu derartigen Veränderungen des globalen Machtgefüges kommt es nur einmal in hundert Jahren. Was heute geschieht, ist mit der Entwicklung vor einem Jahrhundert zu vergleichen, als Amerika zur Supermacht wurde. Das Ausmaß der Veränderung in China ist, zumindest teilweise, auf die radikalen und raschen Umwälzungen in der Verwaltung zurückzuführen. Da dieser Wandel so schlagartig eintrat, ist man versucht, dies als reinen Glücksfall abzutun, aber die Umstrukturierung Chinas ist dauerhaft und wird Auswirkungen auf alle Aspekte seiner Existenz als Nation und auch auf seine Stellung in der Welt haben.

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