Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images

日本的经济上计

纽约—日本资产泡沫破裂已经四分之一世纪,而其一个接一个的“失去的十年”也维持了四分之一世纪。增长本身不是目标;我们应该关注生活水平。日本在遏制人口增长方面一直世界领先,生产率也一直在提高。工作年龄人口人均产出增长要高于美国,比欧洲更是要高出甚多,2008年以后尤其如此。

但日本人认为他们可以做得更好。我也同意。日本的供给侧和需求侧、实体经济和金融业都存在问题。解决这些问题所需要的经济政策必须比决策者目前所采取的政策更有希望见效。目前的政策没能实现通胀目标、重塑信心或将增长提振至希望水平。

首先,大规模碳税如能与“绿色金融”配合,能够刺激巨量投资令经济焕然一新。这一刺激几乎肯定能盖过从现行体系中抽出资金所带来的萎缩效应以及“碳资产”贬值所造成的负财富效应。碳资产贬值的负财富效应规模将相当小;而由于资本存量与新价格体系的严重不同步,所释放的投资将十分巨大,除非存在弥合缺口的瓶颈。

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