parthenon Robert Wallace/Flickr

Un nouveau départ pour la Grèce – et l’Europe

KIEL – La Grèce a un besoin urgent de clarté d’esprit. Cela fait longtemps que le pays aurait fait défaut sur sa dette, si la Banque centrale européenne n’avait pas fourni de manière continue des fonds à la banque centrale grecque à travers son programme d’assistance en liquidité d'urgence (ELA). La banque centrale grecque, à son tour, prête de l'argent aux banques commerciales du pays, qui le prêtent ensuite aux citoyens grecs et aux créanciers étrangers. Le problème est que les deux groupes d'emprunteurs ont transféré de grandes sommes d'argent vers d'autres pays.

En conséquence, les crédits de découvert à la banque centrale grecque ont augmenté de près d’un milliard d’euros par jour au cours des derniers mois. Si la Grèce fait défaut et sort de la zone euro, ces découverts ne seront pas remboursés.

Le financement ELA suppose que l'économie grecque est temporairement illiquide, mais pas insolvable. Cette hypothèse est manifestement fausse. Malgré toute la douleur que la Grèce a subie – une baisse de 30% de la demande globale depuis le dernier point haut cyclique et une hausse du chômage à plus de 25% de la main-d'œuvre – l'économie grecque est encore loin d'être suffisamment concurrentielle pour rembourser ses dettes.

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