parthenon Robert Wallace/Flickr

希腊和欧洲的新开始

基尔—希腊急需清晰思维。希腊此前没有违约的唯一原因是欧洲央行一直在通过其紧急流动性援助(ELA)机制为希腊央行提供资金。希腊央行反过来将资金贷给本国商业银行,再由后者贷给希腊公民和外国债权人。问题在于这两类借款人一直在将大量资金转移到其他国家。

结果是近几个月来希腊央行的透支信用每天都要增加近10亿欧元。如果希腊违约并退出欧元区,这些透支额将不会偿还

ELA资金假设希腊经济只是暂时性流动性不足,而不是资不抵债。这一假设大错特错。尽管希腊遭受了巨大的痛苦——自上一个周期波峰以来总需求下降了30%,而劳动力失业率超过了25%——希腊经济的竞争力仍远远不足以偿还它的债务。

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