Clouds

零净排放势在必行

牛津——世界各国已经就气候变化达成了历史性的协议。巴黎联合国气候变化大会协议要求各国必须采取措施将变暖限制在比前工业化水平高2摄氏度以内,同时“努力”将变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内。协议还要求发达国家每年为发展中国家提供1,000亿美元的发展援助。但不幸的是,最终谈判放弃了零这个唯一对地球未来真正重要的数字。

零意味着将地球温度稳定在任何水平上我们能够排放的净二氧化碳含量。零、没有、一点不排放。地球的大气-海洋系统就像一个充满了二氧化碳和其他温室气体的浴缸:地球温度将随着排放水平持续增长。

一旦浴缸达到与特定变暖程度相关联的水平(比方说2摄氏度),排放的龙头就必须关上。科学家们一致认为,超出这一水平风险就会非常严重、有可能达到临界点、文明的适应力也无法得到保障。若非如此,大气浴缸将不断混入二氧化碳,导致地球变暖3度、4度、5度,依此类推,直到最终停止排放——或者人类陷入灭绝。越早关闭龙头,气候就会稳定在相对较低的温度上,我们面临的风险就越小,适应全球变暖仅需付出较低的代价。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/4Vi6JOX/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now