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Was spricht gegen Negativzinsen?

NEW YORK – Anfang Januar schrieb ich, dass sich die Wirtschaftslage in diesem Jahr so schwach entwickeln dürfte wie in 2015, dem schlechtesten Jahr seit dem Ausbrauch der globalen Finanzkrise 2008. Und wie mehrmals während des vergangenen Jahres werden nun, nachdem ein paar Monate ins Land gegangen sind, andere, optimistischere Prognosen nach unten korrigiert.

Das grundlegende Problem – das die Weltwirtschaft seit der Krise plagt und das sich nun leicht verschärft hat – ist die mangelnde globale Gesamtnachfrage. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat nun in Reaktion darauf ihre Konjunkturimpulse ausgeweitet und beweist so, gemeinsam mit der Bank von Japan und einer Reihe anderer Notenbanken, dass die „Nullgrenze“ – die Unfähigkeit zur Senkung der Zinsen unter den Nullpunkt – eine Grenze ist, die nur in der Fantasie konventionell denkender Ökonomen besteht.

Und doch gab es in keiner der Volkswirtschaften, die das unorthodoxe Experiment negativer Zinssätze wagten, eine Rückkehr zu Wachstum und Vollbeschäftigung. In einigen Fällen war das Ergebnis unerwartet: Hier sind die Kreditzinsen tatsächlich gestiegen.

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