

Though the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike of 2023 is smaller than those that preceded it, policymakers have signaled that more increases are on the way, despite slowing price growth. But there is good reason to doubt the utility – and fear the consequences – of continued rate hikes, on both sides of the Atlantic.
纽约—1月初我写道,今年的经济条件和2015年一样疲软,为2008年全球金融危机爆发以来最糟糕的一年。此外,如过去十年中反复发生的,今年过去几个月后,其他人较为乐观的预测纷纷向下修正。
基本问题——这一问题自金融危机以来一直困扰着全球经济,但略有恶化——是全球总需求不足。目前,欧洲央行的反应是实施刺激措施,加入了日本银行和其他 一些央行的行列,证明“零下限”——利率无法为负——只是传统经济学家想象中的极限。
但是,在尝试负利率的非正统实验的经济体中,没有一个回归增长和充分就业。一些经济体的结果出人意料:某些贷款利率实际有所上升。
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