El campo minado de la política libanesa

La conferencia de donantes de países occidentales y naciones árabes que disfrutan de las riquezas petroleras, que se realizará en París esta semana, no hace más que continuar el trabajo de dos conferencias multilaterales previas de 2001 y 2002, dirigidas a ayudar al Líbano a reconstruir su infraestructura tras años de guerra civil y ocupación israelí, y a enfrentar su enorme deuda. Esta vez, los donantes ayudarán también a compensar los $3,5 mil millones en pérdidas directas e indirectas causadas por la guerra del verano último entre Israel y Hezbolá, y el aumento adicional de la deuda a $40,6 mil millones, que ya asciende a un 180% del PIB del Líbano.

El plan de trabajo parece claro, pero “París III” ha adquirido una finalidad política que apenas se puede ocultar: fortalecer el gobierno del Primer Ministro libanés Fouad Siniora frente al gran reto que en el nivel local representa Hezbolá y, por extensión, limitar la influencia de las naciones que apoyan a esta organización: Siria e Irán.

Occidente debe actuar con cautela. Existe un riesgo real de que quede enredado como actor partidista en la política local del Líbano. Tampoco debería intentar convertirse en participante de las agendas regionales de Arabia Saudita, Egipto y Jordania, que difícilmente son modelos de democracia, que están ansiosos por enfrentarse a lo que describen como un amenazante "arco" de poder musulmán chiíta que se extiende desde Irán al Líbano, pasando por Siria e Irak.

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