黎巴嫩政治雷区导航

从表面上看,由西方和盛产石油的阿拉伯国家在巴黎召开的捐助国会议仅仅是2001年和2002年前两次多边会议的继续。其目的是帮助黎巴嫩在多年内战和以色列占领之后重建基础设施并解决庞大的债务问题。这一次,捐助国将会帮助黎巴嫩额外勾销由去年夏天以色列和真主党之间的战争所造成的350亿美金的直接或间接损失,以及将新增加的、竟相当于该国GDP180%的406亿美金债务。

会议议程看上去直截了当,但“第三次巴黎会议”其实还有一个难以掩盖的政治目的:支持面临国内真主党强力挑战的黎巴嫩首相Fouad Siniora的政府,并遏制真主党的地区支持者叙利亚和伊朗的影响力。

西方应该步步谨慎。因为它面临着在黎巴嫩国内政治中扮演一个派系角色的真正风险。它同样也不应该企图介入沙特阿拉伯、埃及和约旦的地区议程—这些国家无论如何也不是民主的典范—它们都急于应付被描画成一条邪恶“弧线”的,从伊朗经叙利亚以及从伊拉克延伸到黎巴嫩的什叶派穆斯林影响力。

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