Riesgo ambiental soberano

NAIROBI – Hasta que estalló la crisis financiera global hace cuatro años, los bonos soberanos tradicionalmente habían sido considerados inversiones confiables, prácticamente sin riesgo. Desde entonces, parecen mucho menos seguros. Y muchos observadores dentro y fuera del sector financiero empezaron a cuestionar los modelos en los que se basan las agencias de calificación crediticia, las firmas de inversión y otros para ponerle un precio a los riesgos vinculados a este tipo de títulos.

Al mismo tiempo, cada vez resulta más evidente que cualquier reforma de los modelos de riesgo debe tomar en consideración las implicancias ambientales y la escasez de recursos naturales. De hecho, un informe de inversión reciente destacaba que la caída de los precios en el siglo XX de 33 materias primas importantes -entre ellas, el aluminio, el aceite de palma y el trigo- ha sido compensada por completo en los diez años que arrancan en 2002, cuando los precios de las materias primas se triplicaron.

Es probable que las crecientes escaseces de recursos naturales estén causando un cambio de paradigma, con implicancias potencialmente profundas para las economías -y, por ende, para el riesgo de deuda soberana- en todo el mundo. De hecho, muchos países ya experimentan un incremento en los precios de las importaciones de recursos biológicos. Los mercados financieros ya no pueden pasar por alto de qué manera los ecosistemas y los servicios y productos multimillonarios que proporcionan -que van desde suministro de agua, almacenamiento de carbono y madera hasta los suelos saludables necesarios para la producción de cultivos- apuntalan el desempeño económico.  

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