Suverénní ekologické riziko

NAIROBI – Než před čtyřmi lety vypukla globální finanční krize, byly suverénní dluhopisy tradičně považovány za spolehlivou, prakticky bezrizikovou investici. Dnes se jeví jako mnohem méně bezpečné. A mnozí pozorovatelé z finančního sektoru i mimo něj začali zpochybňovat modely, o které se ratingové agentury, investiční firmy a další instituce při oceňování rizik spojených s těmito cennými papíry opírají.

Současně je stále zřejmější, že jakákoliv reforma modelů rizik musí zohledňovat ekologické dopady a vzácnost přírodních zdrojů. Nedávná investiční zpráva dokonce zdůraznila, že pád cen 33 důležitých komodit včetně hliníku, palmového oleje a pšenice ve dvacátém století byl zcela vymazán během deseti let po roce 2002, kdy se ceny komodit ztrojnásobily.

Je pravděpodobné, že rostoucí vzácnost přírodních zdrojů vede k posunu paradigmat s potenciálně hlubokými dopady na ekonomiky – a tím i na suverénní dluhové riziko – po celém světě. Mnoho zemí už dnes zažívá vzestup dovozních cen biologických zdrojů. Finanční trhy už nemohou přehlížet, že podstatu ekonomické výkonnosti představují ekosystémy, služby v hodnotě mnoha bilionů dolarů a produkty, které poskytují – ať už to jsou dodávky vody, skladování uhlíku, dříví nebo zdravá půda potřebná pro pěstování plodin.

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