主权环境风险

内罗毕—直到四年前金融危机爆发为止,传统上主权债务被视为可靠的、几乎无风险的投资。金融危机以来,它们的安全性大大地下降了。许多金融部门内外的观察家开始质疑评级机构、投资公司和其他机构赖以为与这类证券相关的风险定价的模型。

与此同时,一个越来越清楚的问题是任何风险模型的改造都必须将环境影响和自然资源稀缺性嵌入其中。事实上,一份最近的投资报告指出,33种重要商品——包括铝、棕榈油和小麦等——价格在20世纪的下跌被2002年以来十年间的商品价格三倍的上涨所完全补偿了。

很可能日渐增加的自然资源稀缺性正在推动范式变迁,对全世界经济、进而是主权债务风险产生巨大潜在影响。事实上,许多国家已经开始经历生物资源进口价格的省长。金融市场已不再忽略生态系统及其所提供的价值数万亿美元的产品和服务——包括水供应、碳储存、木材、以及种植庄稼所需要的健康土壤——对经济表现的支持作用。

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