Опасная афганская мечта НАТО

НЬЮ-ДЕЛИ. Соглашение, достигнутое на саммите НАТО в Лиссабоне по переходному плану, чтобы помочь положить конец войне в Афганистане в течение ближайших четырех лет, вызывает тревожные вопросы о региональной безопасности и глобальной борьбе против транснационального терроризма. По мере того, как США и другие партнеры по коалиции постепенно сворачивают свою боевую роль, афганские силы безопасности – которые должны достигнуть 300 000 человек после интенсивного обучения новобранцев ‑ должны занять их место. Однако эти местные силы вряд ли будут в состоянии удержать страну от распада.

Наиболее вероятный послевоенный сценарий состоит в разделе Афганистана, при котором Талибан будет командовать на юге и востоке, где доминируют пуштуны, а непуштунские северные и западные регионы сохранят свою текущую автономию де-факто.

На региональном уровне, вероятно, будет больше потрясений. Вывод сил НАТО, прежде чем будет завершено дело, оставит Индию на линии фронта перед лицом большего террора со стороны афгано-пакистанского пояса. Ожидается, что отступление НАТО придаст сил джихадистам в регионе ‑ и за ее пределами – для подготовки транснациональных нападений.

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