北约必胜

丹佛——

美国国防部长罗伯特·盖茨最近预言北约的未来“黯淡凄凉”,引起了不小的争论,但前景也很可能是乐观的。六月事实上是这个同盟未卜前路的另一座里程碑:其在利比亚的行动现在长度上已经超过了12年前的科索沃行动。78天后,1999年塞尔维亚的斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇在放弃抵抗,而利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲上校尚未领会——而且可能误解北约的意思。

对我们这些参与过科索沃危机的人来说,对利比亚的干涉就仿佛昨日重演。在叙利亚和科索沃的天空中,北约的战机打击了一个又一个的目标,不是为了支持自由行动,或者延续战略轰炸行动,而是为了改变米洛舍维奇的想法。为保万无一失,剥夺米洛舍维奇“种族清洗”的手段也在行动开始几天后列入考量之中,但行动的真实目的是为了说服他允许北约部队进驻科索沃。这是经典的策略/政治不对称较量。

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