La buena suerte fiscal de la India

CAMBRIDGE – El gobierno de Narendra Modi, primer ministro de la India, debe sentirse afortunado. El descenso de los precios mundiales de los productos básicos, liderado por la baja en el precio del petróleo crudo, ha facilitado la gestión del presupuesto nacional. Y en la actualidad, después de que la Oficina Central de Estadísticas (OCE) revisara su metodología de cálculo de los datos del PIB, dicha tarea se ha hecho aún más fácil. De acuerdo con la OCE, como resultado del cambio metodológico, el crecimiento de la producción anual en el segundo trimestre del año 2014 se situó en el 8,2%, muy por encima de la estimación inicial del 5,3%.

Sobre la base de las cifras del PIB revisadas, se espera que la India tenga un crecimiento promedio del 7.4%  durante el año fiscal que termina en marzo del 2015. Además, se prevé que el país crecerá en una tasa del 8 a 8,5% durante el próximo año fiscal. Ningún cambio en el presupuesto podría generar una aceleración tan notable y sin costo. Es justo decir que el generalmente circunspecto Departamento de Estadística se robó el show en lo que respecta al presupuesto de este año.

No obstante, el presupuesto del ministro de Hacienda Arun Jaitley logra éxitos en varios frentes – en especial en la alineación de visiones e implementaciones. Específicamente, el presupuesto realiza avances en la visión gubernamental de la agenda pro-crecimiento que mejora la facilidad con la que se hacen negocios en la India, mientras que simultáneamente apunta a la implementación de mejores mecanismos de prestación para los planes de asistencia social.

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