Gli sviluppi futuri del commercio

STANFORD – Le notizie sulla situazione economica mondiale sono scoraggianti. La crescita della produzione quest’anno è stata deludente e il Fondo Monetario Internazionale prevede solo un lieve miglioramento nel 2015. L’Europa potrebbe ricadere in recessione, e anche l’economia tedesca, un tempo solida, sta attraversando una fase di instabilità. La Cina sta rallentando, mentre Brasile, Russia e India si stanno impegnando per evitare che l’attività economica subisca una battuta d’arresto.

È quindi un peccato che tre importanti opportunità di crescita legate alla liberalizzazione del commercio – il Doha Development Round dell’Organizzazione mondiale del commercio, il Partenariato trans-pacifico (Tpp) nella regione dell’Asia Pacifico e il Partenariato transatlantico sul commercio e gli investimenti (Ttip) tra gli Stati Uniti e l’Europa – non ricevano la giusta attenzione. Se concepite in maniera corretta, tutte e tre hanno il potenziale per stimolare la crescita globale. Tramite la riduzione di tariffe e di barriere non tariffarie, la protezione della proprietà intellettuale e l’armonizzazione dei regolamenti, si potrebbe verificare una crescita della produzione per centinaia di miliardi di dollari e la creazione di milioni di posti di lavoro.

È il quadro che emerge dell’Accordo nordamericano per il libero commercio (Nafta), che celebra i vent’anni quest’anno. In NAFTA at 20, un libro di cui ho curato l’edizione, policymaker e studiosi spiegano come lo storico trattato sul commercio esemplifica i benefici della liberalizzazione del commercio – e i motivi per cui i leader politici dovrebbero attenersi a tale accordo.

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