A man walks with his bicycle in the Con Market in the central Vietnamese city of Danang YE AUNG THU/AFP/Getty Images

“未来11国”和世界经济

发自伦敦——最近在越南,柬埔寨和老挝三国度假期间,我总会忍不住去思考这些国家的经济潜力以及当下面临的各类政策挑战。毕竟在2005年我和高盛集团的同事们把越南列入了未来11国之一——也就是在本世纪内有潜力成为重要经济体的国家。

根据越南政府发布的数据,其最新一季度实际(排除通胀后)的GDP增长率为7.4%,超过了中国。而根据世界银行的预测,越南有望与柬埔寨和老挝一道在本年度保持类似的增长水平。

未来11国从未获得像金砖四国这个缩写词的声望,当年(2001)我创造这个词是用来概括未来将对世界经济产生重大影响的新兴经济体(巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国)。 未来11国国家无法与金砖四国等量齐观,但这两个缩写词都并不是为投资而设。相反,这个词汇只是我们用来描述位列金砖四国之后的11个人口最多,潜力最高的新兴经济体的标签。

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