Mes Pronostics pour 2009

DAVOS – L’avenir de l’économie mondiale dépend en grande partie de l’envergure et de la cohérence des mesures que prendra le président Barack Obama, et de leurs bons résultats. La façon dont les Chinois, les Européens, et les autres acteurs principaux y réagiront, a autant d’importance. Si une vraie coopération internationale se met en place, on peut espérer tirer l’économie mondiale d’une profonde ornière, fin 2009. Sinon, on court au désordre et au déclin, tant économiques que politiques.

L’équilibre économique ne se rétablira pas en un clin d’œil. pour compenser l’effondrement du crédit, Il faudra gorger l’économie d’une profusion d’argent dans un premier temps, et dès que le crédit se sera remis à fonctionner, en ponctionner le système presque aussi rapidement. Cette seconde phase sera plus délicate, à la fois politiquement et techniquement: l’argent est plus facile à donner qu’à reprendre. A fortiori, il est plus important encore d’orienter la relance vers des investissements assez productifs. Le renflouement de la construction automobile doit rester l’exception et non la règle.

Le dollar

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