我对2009年的展望

达沃斯--全球经济的未来将会在很大程度上取决于奥巴马总统是否能够实施全面和一贯的一整套措施,以及他在多大程度能够成功地落实这些措施。中国、欧洲以及其他主要国家如果应对也将会同样重要。如果国际合作良好,那么世界经济可能会在2009年年底慢慢走出低谷。否则我们将会面临一个非常漫长的经济和政治混乱和衰退时期。

我们无法一蹴而就地重新建立经济均衡。相反,我们首先要向经济体内注入充足的资金来弥补信贷的崩溃。随后,当信贷开始再次流动的时候,我们必须把流动资金从经济体系中抽出去,这要像当初注入资金时一样快。第二步行动在政治上和技术上都要比第一步行动困难得多,这是因为把钱给出去总是比把钱收回来容易得多。因此,经济刺激计划应该导向相对高产出率的投资就更为重要了。挽救美国的汽车产业应该只是一个例外,而不能成为定规。

美元

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