2015年的正确选择

华盛顿—随着2014年临近尾声,全世界决策者面临着三大基本选择:为经济增长而奋斗或者接受停滞;努力改善稳定或者陷入分裂;合作或是单干。赌注是巨大的;2015年极有可能是全球社会非立即破(make-or-break)的一年。

首先,面对2008年开始的大衰退,世界需要增长和就业支持繁荣和社会团结。金融危机爆发已逾六年,复苏仍然疲软又不平均。预计2014年全球增长只有3.3%,2015年只有3.8%。一些重要经济体仍在与通缩抗争。2亿多人陷入失业。全球经济有可能陷入“新平庸”(new mediocre)——长时间的慢增长和就业创造萎靡。

要想摆脱停滞,我们需要政策动力。如果实施11月G-20会议领导人达成一致的措施,世界GDP将在2018年提高2%——相当于增加2万亿美元全球收入。此外,到2025年,如果将性别差距缩小25%这一深得人心又合情合理的目标能够实现,1亿妇女将能获得她们从未得到过的工作。全球领导人已要求国际货币基金组织(IMF)监督这些增长战略。我们会承担这一责任,一个国家一个国家、一项改革一项改革地进行监督。

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