能源安全的多边保证

对可靠能源的全球性需求就像输送能源的全球性网络一样将我们紧密地联系在一起,如果某个环节出现了错误,将不可避免地影响到网络中的每一个人。网络中无处不在的地方利益和无时不在的冲突矛盾,包括迄今为止还没有解决的俄国对乌克兰和欧洲的天然气供应,再一次引发了人们对以能源为武器来获取政治影响的莫名恐惧。在由普京总统(Vladimir Putin)主办的圣彼得堡八国峰会上,能源安全问题被列入中心议题。八国峰会明确了能源互赖这一关键经济问题的地位,现在已经到了达成多边协议的时候了。

对石油、天然气储量很大的国家来讲,利用能源出口来奖励朋友、惩戒敌人似乎很有诱惑力。然而今天,这种做法无疑会给朋友和敌人同样地造成损害,甚至威胁到沉湎于这种诱惑者的自身利益。从总体来看,能源禁运的效果有害无益。欧佩克20世纪70年代实行石油禁运造成的价格飞涨无法长期持续下去,直接导致了石油消费的减少和非欧佩克石油产量的增加。其结果导致欧佩克占世界石油出口的份额在1973-1974年禁运之后的12年内发生了大幅度下降。

过去的经验告诉我们:价格的透明和稳定符合相关各方的利益。在促进全球市场发展的同时严格遵循上述原则对世界经济获得更大的总体增长无疑起着至关重要的作用。因此当年初俄国试图把出口乌克兰的天然气价格提升到原来四倍的时候,俄国辩解说它所要求的不过是市场价格。这种说法乍听上去不失公正,而且在一段很短的时间内,它的确获得了不完全了解情况的执政者和投资者的认同。

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