Gli odiosi debiti di Mubarak

NEW YORK – Uno sguardo alle finanze pubbliche dell’Egitto rivela un fatto allarmante: gli interessi che il Paese paga sui prestiti esteri sono superiori al budget complessivo previsto per istruzione, sanità ed edilizia. In effetti, questi costi per la copertura del debito rappresentano da soli il 22% delle spese totali del governo egiziano.

È impossibile non considerarne l’impatto. Data la crescente incertezza politica e il rallentamento economico, l’Egitto assisterà con tutta probabilità all’inevitabile calo delle entrate pubbliche, all’aumento di richieste per le spese urgenti e all’impennata dei tassi di interesse sull’indebitamento governativo. Questo scenario potrebbe portare a una catastrofe fiscale per il governo proprio nel momento in cui il Paese tenta una complicata transizione politica.

Il debito pubblico dell’Egitto si aggira attorno all’80% del Pil, molto vicino a quel 90% che gli economisti Kenneth Rogoff e Carmen Reinhart identificano come precursore di lenta crescita ed elevata vulnerabilità verso le crisi finanziarie e fiscali. Gli egiziani dovrebbero gettare uno sguardo a nord, alla crisi debitoria europea, per capire che sarebbe meglio venir fuori ora dai problemi di debito invece di aspettare che questo raggiunga le proporzioni greche.

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