穆巴拉克的恶意债务

纽约——埃及公共财政揭示了一个令人不安的事实:付给外国贷款的利息超过了教育、医疗和住房预算之和。事实上,债务利息支出一项就占到了埃及政府总支出的22%。

所造成的影响是无法忽略的。随着政治不确定性的增加和经济增长的减速,埃及的政府收入可能会下降,紧急支出需求可能会增加,政府借贷的利率也会水涨船高。这将带来财政崩溃的危险,而与此同时,埃及正处在复杂政治过渡的关键时刻。

埃及公债相当于GDP的80%,与经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和卡门·莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)所指出的90%临界点十分接近——超过90%将导致经济增长减缓、金融和财政危机风险大增。只要看看北边的欧洲债务危机,埃及人就能明白,债务问题必须现在就解决,不能让埃及变成第二个希腊。

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