Avanzar más allá de la Putinomía

MOSCU – La elección de Dmitry Medvedev como nuevo presidente de Rusia estaba prácticamente garantizada. Que pueda o no mejorar la economía de Rusia después de asumir el cargo en mayo es algo mucho más incierto.

Sin duda, la administración de Vladimir Putin parece haber dejado a la economía de Rusia en estado rozagante. El crecimiento económico promedió el 7,2% entre 1999 y 2008. Las reservas extranjeras representan el 30% del PBI y son las terceras más altas del mundo en términos absolutos. El mercado accionario creció veinte veces. La clase media está comprando autos extranjeros, veraneando en el extranjero y cenando en restaurantes de sushi, y las encuestas demuestran que el grado de satisfacción aumentó para todos por igual.

El éxito económico de Rusia en parte puede atribuirse a los elevados precios del petróleo y las materias primas. Pero el petróleo no es toda la historia. La reforma tributaria de 2001 mejoró los incentivos para trabajar y redujo la evasión impositiva al introducir un impuesto a las ganancias plano del 13% -uno de los más bajos del mundo-. La liberalización de los procedimientos para el registro y los permisos de licencias corporativos así como la reducción de las inspecciones mejoraron el clima para los pequeños negocios y empresarios. La política macroeconómica conservadora y la reforma del sector financiero redujeron las tasas de interés y estimularon un auge de inversión y consumo. Los salarios reales se triplicaron y la pobreza y el desempleo cayeron el 50%.

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