Wie geht es mit Russlands Wirtschaft weiter?

MOSKAU – Dimitri Medwedews Wahl zum neuen russischen Präsidenten war praktisch sicher. Viel weniger sicher ist allerdings, ob er nach seinem Amtsantritt im Mai für eine Verbesserung der russischen Wirtschaft sorgen kann. 

Natürlich hinterlässt Wladimir Putins Präsidentschaft eine russische Ökonomie in augenscheinlich rosigem Zustand. Das Wirtschaftswachstum betrug zwischen 1999 und 2008 im Schnitt 7,2 %. Die Devisenreserven  belaufen sich auf 30 % des BIP, in absoluten Zahlen der dritthöchste Wert der Welt.  Der Aktienmarkt ist um das Zwanzigfache angewachsen. Die Mittelschicht kauft sich ausländische Autos, urlaubt im Ausland, speist in Sushi-Restaurants und Umfragen zeigen, dass die Lebenszufriedenheit insgesamt gestiegen ist.

Teilweise ist der wirtschaftliche Erfolg Russlands auf hohe Öl- und Rohstoffpreise zurückzuführen. Aber das ist eben nur ein Teil der Wahrheit. Durch die Steuerreform im Jahr 2001 verbesserte man Arbeitsanreize und durch die Einführung eines einheitlichen Einkommenssteuersatzes von 13 % - der niedrigste weltweit – wurde der Steuerhinterziehung Einhalt geboten. Die Liberalisierung der Verfahren bei Eintragung und Konzessionierung von Unternehmen sowie eingeschränkte Inspektionen verbesserten das Klima für Kleinbetriebe und Kleinunternehmer. Eine konservative Politik im Bereich Makroökonomie und Reformen auf dem Finanzsektor führten zu einer Senkung der Zinssätze und lösten einen Investitions- und Konsumboom aus. Die Reallöhne verdreifachten sich, Armut und Arbeitslosigkeit fielen um die Hälfte.

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