Comment résoudre la crise mexicaine

La crise des élections présidentielles mexicaines pousse à se poser certaines questions. Ces doutes ne concernent pas uniquement la conduite du candidat apparemment vaincu, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, mais aussi le système présidentiel mexicain. Le “présidentialisme” tel qu'il est pratiqué au Mexique a-t-il une part de responsabilité dans le problème ?

Felipe Calderón, du parti de droite au pouvoir, le Parti d'action nationale (PAN), est actuellement en tête dans le compte des voix qui sera confirmé d'ici septembre. La prochaine élection présidentielle est prévue pour 2012, tout comme les élections au Sénat, dont l'accord est nécessaire pour l'élaboration de la plupart des lois. Ainsi, Calderón et les alliés de son parti, avec 41% des sièges du Sénat, n'aura jamais de majorité pendant les six ans de son mandat, et sera également minoritaire dans la chambre basse où le PAN ne dispose que de 43% des sièges, et ce au moins jusqu'en 2009.

Si les manifestations de rue et les défis juridiques organisés par López Obrador fonctionnent, il sera dans une position encore plus faible. Le parti révolutionnaire démocratique (PRD) de gauche de López Obrador et ses petits partis alliés détiennent à eux tous 31% du Sénat et un peu moins du tiers des sièges de la chambre basse. Cela signifie qu'au cours des trois premières années d'une présidence portée au pouvoir au milieu d'immenses exigences populaires, López Obrador ne serait capable de mettre en œuvre que très peu de réformes. En outre, il ne pourrait même pas opposer son veto à des lois hostiles, car il serait le premier président de l'histoire moderne du Mexique à ne pas disposer d'un tiers des sièges dans au moins l'une des chambres de la législature nécessaire pour soutenir un veto présidentiel.

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