Economics

الموارد المالية الخطرة في الصين

Jul 4, 2013 Zhang Monan

بكين ــ في السنوات القادمة، سوف تضطر حكومة الصين إلى مواجهة تحديات كبيرة في محاولاتها الرامية إلى تحقيق الاستقرار، والنمو الاقتصادي الشامل والمستدام. ولكن مع تصاعد المخاطر الضريبية والمالية والتي تهدد بعرقلة جهودها، فيتعين على صناع السياسات أن يسارعوا إلى تصميم وتنفيذ سياسات حكيمة ومتطلعة إلى المستقبل.

وتكمن أعظم المخاطر التي تهدد الموقف المالي للصين في الأمدين المتوسط والبعيد في نظام الضمانات غير المباشرة التي أنشأتها الحكومة المركزية لديون الحكومات المحلية. ففي أعقاب الأزمة المالية العالمية، اقترضت الحكومات المحلية بإفراط من البنوك من أجل دعم برنامج التحفيز الهائل في الصين، فتراكمت لديها ديون بلغت 10.7 تريليون يوان (1.7 تريليون دولار) بحلول عام 2011.

ويأمل قادة الصين أن يتمكنوا من السيطرة على المخاطر المحتملة الناجمة عن أدوات استثمار الحكومات المحلية من خلال الحد من الإقراض المصرفي. ولم ترتفع موازنة القروض المصرفية في مقابل أدوات استثمار الحكومات المحلية إلا بشكل طفيف في عام 2012، من 9.1 تريليون يوان في عام 2011 إلى 9.3 تريليون يوان. كما دعت لجنة تنظيم العملي المصرفي في الصين البنوك إلى الحفاظ على حصص العام الماضي من أدوات استثمار الحكومات المحلية في عام 2013، وضمان عدم تجاوز التوازن الإجمالي للقروض في مقابل أدوات استثمار الحكومات المحلية لإجمالي نهاية عام 2011.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

Parrain Boursorama Jan 12, 2014

The best model for expanding Alternative Energies and Environmental Protection globally is through using market equilibrium, whereas governmental subsidies and fiscal stimulus to be just supplementary
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Jonathan Lam Jul 18, 2013

Gamesmith94134: China’s Risky Finances

When a local government is no longer able to service its debt, the central government will have to place its own fiscal capacity at risk by assuming the responsibility. It is risky only if you do not understand its limits. I think Mr. Bernanke would understood the shadow banking system well through his experience with the EU banks; and we contemplate on the policy and laws how we are buying the banks with huge debts and no relief on the write-off or bankruptcy. This is a risky finance if you must answer on the convertible and turn yourself into a shareholder of amount of debts and keep the bank running. Just like Mr. Bernanke answered to the committee yesterday, he said, ’I don’t know.’ If there is no escape to such risk, we must rely on its governmental policy or banking rules to guide us out of this sinkhole. Did Spain or Portugal sound off the cut of services and workers make any sense in the austerity program? They got blame for the crisis.

It was Chinese central bank scale back to the 2011 level, but the local and corporate will run on its Shadow Banking System to keep it off the balance sheeting. Perhaps, Lending by trust companies rose by more than 400% last year – is generating significant solvency risk in China, given that it is frequently extended to higher-risk entities, including real-estate developers and LGIVs. it is how China or Mr. Li would take the case to appeal in the China-US trade agreement, and both sides must restrain itself to drive off the risk of default in lurching on to the economic downturn or even financial crisis. Why isn’t there a shrinking crown on the Monkey King?

“The impact of the PBOC’s liquidity crunch operation is very clear: targeting shadow banking but maintaining regular bank lending,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. The surge in the share of bank loans in aggregate financing reflects “a severe decline in shadow-banking activities,” he said. (By Bloomberg news)

We are all in deep mud in lesser of a prayer, and I am sweating on this risky finance. Walk softly and carry a big stick.

May the Buddha bless you?
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Kevin Yao Jul 12, 2013

If central government is still in control of most the country, thus leaving little freedom to people, the implicit guarantees will continue, as those from parents to the children.
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