Dinero para nada

COPENHAGUE – A la hora de abordar el calentamiento planetario, tenemos mucha retórica vana, pero muy poca razón sensata. Es algo que reviste una importancia inmensa, porque el protocolo de Kyoto figura ya entre las políticas públicas mundiales más caras jamás aplicadas y su continuación en Copenhague a finales de 2009 promete superar todas las marcas. Tenemos que hacerlo lo mejor posible, pero ahora mismo lo más probable es que paguemos virtualmente para nada.

Un buen ejemplo es la recién instituida política de la Unión Europea de reducción de las emisiones de CO2 en un 20 por ciento en 2020. Naturalmente, siempre es más fácil prometer que cumplir… preocupación que resulta particularmente pertinente en la UE. Sin embargo, aunque se cumpla la promesa, ¿superará el beneficio al costo? Resulta curioso, pero no extraño, que no se hable demasiado de eso.

Una reducción del 20 por ciento en las emisiones de CO2 de la UE, vigorosamente aplicada a lo largo de este siglo, sólo retrasaría los aumentos de temperatura debidos al calentamiento planetario en dos años al final del siglo: de 2100 a 2102, un cambio insignificante. Sin embargo, el costo no será insignificante precisamente. Según el propio cálculo de la UE, ascendería a 60.000 millones de euros al año, lo que con toda seguridad es muy inferior a la realidad (su cálculo anterior fue casi dos veces mayor), pues requiere que la UE haga las reducciones de la forma más eficiente posible.

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