Деньги на ветер

КОПЕНГАГЕН – Когда речь идет о глобальном потеплении, то у нас много жаркой риторики, но очень мало здравого смысла. Это имеет огромное значение, потому что Киотский Протокол уже относится к самым дорогостоящим мировым государственным политическим программам, которые когда-либо были приняты, а доработка в Копенгагене в конце 2009 года обещает побить все рекорды. Нам лучше прояснить ситуацию, но прямо сейчас скорее всего мы будем платить практически ни за что.

Хорошим примером является недавно принятая политика Европейского Союза по сокращению выбросов CO2 на 20% к 2020 году. Конечно, всегда легче обещать, чем делать – тревога, которая особенно уместна в ЕС. И все же даже если обещание будет выполнено, неужели польза перевесит затраты? Любопытно, но не удивительно, что это мало кто обсуждает.

20%-ое сокращение выбросов CO2 в ЕС, решительно осуществляемое в этом столетии, просто отложит повышение температуры вследствие глобального потепления на два года в конце века, с 2100 до 2102 – это незначительное изменение. И все же цена будет далеко не незначительной. Собственная оценка ЕС – около €60 миллиардов в год, что почти наверняка сильно недооценено (его предыдущая оценка была почти вдвое больше), поскольку необходимо, чтобы ЕС провел сокращения как можно умнее.

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